some stuff you should know before watching the ceremony and also some opinions
Erika Fox
01/02/2024
Welcome to my Superbowl…. The Grammys may severely disappoint me every year, but the time in between nomination announcements and the ceremony still thrills me. This is a time to make new music discoveries, as well as judgments and predictions. Here, I’ll breakdown the Big Four: Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist.
Notes:
- there is no set in stone criteria that is used for Grammys decisions- but here I will consider the nominees’ cultural prominence, contributions to the music industry, and just plain goodness
- this year’s eligibility window was 10/1/2022 – 9/15/2023
- I don’t like to think about these in terms of “who deserves to win”. Every item on this list ‘deserves’ to win- that’s why they were nominated.
Record of the Year
The Context Many get confused about the difference between Record of the Year and Song of the Year, but the difference is this: Record of the Year is a production award whereas Song of the Year is a writing award. For example, Luke Combs released a critically acclaimed cover of Fast Car (Tracy Chapman) this year. This track would be eligible for a Record of the Year nom- new recording, new mix, new vocals. However, it wouldn’t be eligible for Song of the Year, as the song- meaning the lyrics- has been previously released and has even already been nominated in this category, Tracy Chapman’s version in 1989.
Click to see the nominees
Worship // Jon Batiste
Jon Batiste, Jon Bellion, Pete Nappi & Tenroc, producers; Serban Ghenea & Pete Nappi, engineers/mixers; Chris Gehringer, mastering engineer
Not Strong Enough // boygenius
boygenius & Catherine Marks, producers; Owen Lantz, Catherine Marks, Mike Mogis, Bobby Mota, Kaushlesh “Garry” Purohit & Sarah Tudzin, engineers/mixers; Pat Sullivan, mastering engineer
Flowers // Miley Cyrus
Kid Harpoon & Tyler Johnson, producers; Michael Pollack, Brian Rajaratnam & Mark “Spike” Stent, engineers/mixers; Joe LaPorta, mastering engineer
What Was I Made For? [From The Motion Picture “Barbie”] // Billie Eilish
Billie Eilish & FINNEAS, producers; Billie Eilish, Rob Kinelski & FINNEAS, engineers/mixers; Chris Gehringer, mastering engineer
On My Mama // Victoria Monét
Deputy, Dernst Emile II & Jeff Gitelman, producers; Patrizio Pigliapoco & Todd Robinson, engineers/mixers; Colin Leonard, mastering engineer
Vampire // Olivia Rodrigo
Dan Nigro, producer; Serban Ghenea, Michael Harris, Chris Kasych, Daniel Nigro & Dan Viafore, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
Anti-Hero // Taylor Swift
Jack Antonoff & Taylor Swift, producers; Jack Antonoff, Serban Ghenea, Laura Sisk & Lorenzo Wolff, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
Kill Bill // SZA
Rob Bisel & Carter Lang, producers; Rob Bisel, engineer/mixer; Dale Becker, mastering engineer
grammy.com
Jon Batiste, while arguably less prominent of a figure than others on this list, has won big at the Grammys recently with his (surprise) Album of the Year victory in 2022. There’s potential here for another dark horse moment- and I think the writer of this Billboard article would agree. Speaking of cultural prominence, this list is bursting with it, with SZA’s Kill Bill, Taylor Swift’s Anti-Hero, and Miley Cyrus’ Flowers each making their way into Spotify’s “Billion’s Club” (exceeded 1 billion streams on the app) in less than a year since their releases. Additionally, we have the flagship track from arguably the biggest movie of the year, Billie Eilish’s What Was I Made For. Billie is already somewhat of a Grammy legend too, being one of only two artists ever to sweep the Big Four categories in a single year.
The Verdict
Who should win: Considering the cultural prominence aspect, I think it comes down to Flowers, Anti-Hero or Kill Bill. Tying in the production quality, to me Kill Bill has the most to offer in terms of inventiveness and complexity, while still being a digestible song you want to listen to over and over again. The production on Anti-Hero is amazing as well, but it’s pretty characteristically Jack Antonoff. I’ll add that I think What Was I Made For is super unique and impressive to me in terms of what Billie was able to achieve with her voice- however this aspect lends itself more to the Pop Solo Performance category.
Who will win: Kill Bill, SZA
Who I want to win: Kill Bill, SZA
Album of the Year
The Context AOTY is the Grammy’s highest honor, and with that comes controversy. Last year, this category generated a lot of anger online and even in person, as spectators heckled Harry Styles as he accepted the award for Harry’s House, in favor of Beyoncé’s Renaissance. This resurfaced an important conversation- it is true that the Grammy’s has a history of snubbing black women. Beyoncé, despite being the winning-est artist in Grammy history, only has a single win from the four major categories. (and yes there is SO much to say here, but that’s an article for another day).
Click to see the nominees
World Music Radio
Jon Batiste
Jon Batiste, Jon Bellion, Nick Cooper, Pete Nappi & Tenroc, producers; Jon Batiste, Pete Nappi, Kaleb Rollins, Laura Sisk & Marc Whitmore, engineers/mixers; Jon Batiste, Jon Bellion, Jason Cornet & Pete Nappi, songwriters; Chris Gehringer, mastering engineer
the record
boygenius
boygenius & Catherine Marks, producers; Owen Lantz, Will Maclellan, Catherine Marks, Mike Mogis, Bobby Mota, Kaushlesh “Garry” Purohit & Sarah Tudzin, engineers/mixers; Julien Baker, Phoebe Bridgers & Lucy Dacus, songwriters; Pat Sullivan, mastering engineer
Endless Summer Vacation
Miley Cyrus
Kid Harpoon, Tyler Johnson & Mike Will Made-It, producers; Pièce Eatah, Craig Frank, Paul David Hager, Stacy Jones, Brian Rajaratnam & Mark “Spike” Stent, engineers/mixers; Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein, Thomas Hull, Tyler Johnson, Michael Len Williams II & Michael Pollack, songwriters; Joe LaPorta, mastering engineer
Did You Know That There’s A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd
Lana Del Rey
Jack Antonoff, Zach Dawes, Lana Del Rey & Drew Erickson, producers; Jack Antonoff, Michael Harris, Dean Reid & Laura Sisk, engineers/mixers; Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey & Mike Hermosa, songwriters; Ruairi O’Flaherty, mastering engineer
The Age Of Pleasure
Janelle Monáe
Sensei Bueno, Nate “Rocket” Wonder & Nana Kwabena, producers; Mick Guzauski, Nate “Rocket” Wonder, Jayda Love, Janelle Monáe & Yáng Tan, engineers/mixers; Jarrett Goodly, Nathaniel Irvin III, Janelle Monáe Robinson & Nana Kwabena Tuffuor, songwriters; Dave Kutch, mastering engineer
GUTS
Olivia Rodrigo
Daniel Nigro, producer; Serban Ghenea, Sterling Laws, Mitch McCarthy, Daniel Nigro, Dave Schiffman, Mark “Spike” Stent, Sam Stewart & Dan Viafore, engineers/mixers; Daniel Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo, songwriters; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
Midnights
Taylor Swift
Jack Antonoff & Taylor Swift, producers; Jack Antonoff, Zem Audu, Serban Ghenea, David Hart, Mikey Freedom Hart, Sean Hutchinson, Ken Lewis, Michael Riddleberger, Laura Sisk & Evan Smith, engineers/mixers; Jack Antonoff & Taylor Swift, songwriters; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
SOS
SZA
Rob Bisel, ThankGod4Cody & Carter Lang, producers; Rob Bisel, engineer/mixer; Rob Bisel, Cody Fayne, Carter Lang & Solána Rowe, songwriters; Dale Becker, mastering engineer
Among this list, we have the AOTY queen, Taylor Swift. With 3 wins, she is the only female of the 4 artists currently tied for the most AOTY wins ever. If Midnights takes the award this year, she will become the single most awarded artist in this category.
But Taylor isn’t the only returner. I’ve already noted that in 2021, Jon Batiste took this award, and Olivia Rodrigo is now 2 for 2 in that she can say that so far all of her albums have nominated in this category. Janelle Monáe and Lana del Rey have both received AOTY nods twice before… and they also share that they’ve each been nominated 10+ times in various categories but have not won a single time.
Miley Cyrus notably has never before been nominated in any of the major categories, despite her long career. boygenius is also a new face here, understandable given that this is their first release. Despite the fact that debut albums don’t win here often, I certainly wouldn’t count this one out.
The Verdict
Who should win: With similar reasoning to Record of the Year, I think SOS or Midnights should take this. SOS has a bit of edge when it comes to artfulness, but it’s impossible to deny how much of a splash Midnights has made this year- it’s a high achieving album even by Taylor’s standards. Just on the top of my head, I can think of three mainstream TikTok trends that use Midnight’s tracks (yes, this is a legit way to measure prominence), and Taylor has been plain unignorable since its release. I also want to note Olivia Rodrigo here, as she has also had an incredible year. Her album GUTS achieved something quite rare, scoring nods in both the Rock and Pop subcategories- which could be a double edged sword. On one hand there is an argument that the album is not sonically cohesive (Taylor Swift has several times been quoted that she believes this is why her album Red didn’t get the win in 2013), but could also set it apart from the rest (I think it’s the latter).
Who will win: I can see them choosing SOS, especially after last year’s conversation. Don’t misunderstand me, I think SOS is absolutely Album of the Year worthy, for reasons well beyond and separate from the fact that SZA is a black female artist. However, I have little faith in the recording academy.
Who I want to win: I can’t hide my swiftie-ness here… Midnights is my personal favorite from this list- an absolute no skip album (no I don’t say this about every Tay album). I would be so excited to see Taylor become the most awarded AOTY artist.
Song of the Year
The Context Last year this category confused everyone with its choice to honor Bonnie Raitt’s Just Like That (I am not shitting on the song! I just don’t think anyone expected it to win). But ultimately, despite of its relative unpopularity, I think this song won because of its moving lyrics that must’ve touched the voters, something to consider when evaluating this year’s nominees.
Click here to see the nominees
A&W
Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey & Sam Dew, songwriters (Lana Del Rey)
Anti-Hero
Jack Antonoff & Taylor Swift, songwriters (Taylor Swift)
Butterfly
Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson, songwriters (Jon Batiste)
Dance The Night (From Barbie The Album)
Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt, songwriters (Dua Lipa)
Flowers
Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein & Michael Pollack, songwriters (Miley Cyrus)
Kill Bill
Rob Bisel, Carter Lang & Solána Rowe, songwriters (SZA)
Vampire
Daniel Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo, songwriters (Olivia Rodrigo)
What Was I Made For? [From The Motion Picture “Barbie”]
Billie Eilish O’Connell & Finneas O’Connell, songwriters (Billie Eilish)
Notable here, Taylor Swift, an artist revered for her songwriting ability, has never won Song of the Year despite being nominated for it 6 times (excluding this year) and her success in other categories.
The Verdict
Who should win: Anti-Hero. This song has it all- it’s funny and relatable (it’s me, hi), it’s catchy and upbeat, and yet it has challenging lyrics about mental health/self-worth and even includes some social commentary. My favorite line from this song, “sometimes I feel like everybody is a sexy baby”, caused quite the stir upon this songs release- but I think its such a clever way to point out how young many of Taylor’s female-pop counterparts are. Even among this list of excellent choices, I truly think this is some of Taylor’s best songwriting and I think it should take home this award.
Who will win: I am so split on what they are going to do here. Either Anti-Hero or What Was I Made For feels most likely to me, as I think both of those songs have the creative, poetic, and emotional quality to the lyrics that the Academy has leaned towards in recent years. However, I can also see them going with Miley’s Flowers, and I don’t think this would be a bad call. This song is empowering and very unique in that it was written as somewhat of an echo to Bruno Mars’ When I Was Your Man (“I should have bought you flowers” –> “I can buy myself flowers” // “I should have held your hand” –> “I can hold my own hand”). This echoing is not only a clever take on a modern classic- it’s also packed with meaning, as the Bruno song held significance to Miley’s marriage before its unfortunate end.
Who I want to win: Anti-Hero.
Best New Artist
The Context This is one of the most exciting categories because often when artists get nominated here they aren’t as well known (due to their newness, of course) but past winners have gone on to be some of the biggest names in music. These past winners include names like The Beatles, Carly Simon, Mariah Carey, Amy Winehouse, Adele, Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo. However, on the other hand, there are also so many artists that lost their nominations in this category despite going on to also be significant contributors to the music world- such as Led Zeppelin, Elton John, Fiona Apple, Imogen Heap and Doja Cat, just to name a few. This goes to say that even though there will only be one winner, there’s plenty of potential for more than one of the artists nominated here to go on to do big things, and with the quality of the list this year, I think that should be expected.
Click here to see the nominees
Fred again..
Ice Spice
Jelly Roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monét
The War And Treaty
These nominees collectively have had a lot of big moments. Olivia Rodrigo covered Noah Kahan’s Stick Season for BBC Radio 1’s Live Lounge. Noah and Ice Spice each served as the musical guest on SNL this year. Ice Spice also collaborated with Aqua and Nicki Minaj on one of the biggest songs for the Barbie movie, and with Taylor Swift on a remix of her song Karma. Ice and Gracie Abrams were also both involved with Taylor’s Eras tour at some point, Ice as a guest and Gracie as an opening act. You might also recognize Victoria Monet’s name, as in addition to her own stunning new album, she is a best friend and collaborator to pop icon Ariana Grande (she was particularly involved on the Thank U, Next album).
The Verdict
Who should win: This award belongs either to Victoria Monét or Noah Kahan. Victoria brings something to the music scene that no one else is doing right now. Her 2023 Album Jaguar II has undertones of the unique style and tone that she helped invent for Thank u, Next, yet that is accompanied with old school funk influences such as from Earth, Wind and Fire, who even appears on the project as a feature. This unique combination makes her a musical trailblazer whose prominence I can only see growing from here. Her song On My Mama even made former president Obama’s list of favorite songs for last year.
On the other hand, Noah Kahan is simply one of the best songwriters to emerge in recent memory. Or maybe, ’emerge’ isn’t the right word- as Noah as been releasing music since 2017. However, his 2022 album Stick Season brought him into more of a mainstream spotlight with its themes of mental health and growing up in small town New England, heartfelt lyricism, impressive musicianship, and Americana sound. Not nominating Stick Season in any other categories is a huge disappointment, but Noah could still get some deserved recognition as Best New Artist.
Who will win: Ice Spice is my prediction, mainly due to the incredible year she has had and the splash she has been able to make.
Who I want to win: Noah Kahan, please!!! Would be so happy for Victoria too though.
If you made it down here thank you so much for reading!!! 😀
Erika Fox 
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