some stuff you should know before watching the ceremony and also some opinions
Erika Fox
1/31/2025
Welcome to my Superbowl…. The Grammys may severely disappoint me every year, but the time in between nomination announcements and the ceremony still thrills me. This is a time to make new music discoveries, as well as judgments and predictions. Here, I’ll breakdown the Big Four: Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist.
Notes:
- there is no set in stone criteria that is used for Grammys decisions- but here I will consider the nominees’ cultural prominence, contributions to the music industry, and just plain goodness
- this year’s eligibility window was 9/16/2023 – 8/30/2024
- I don’t like to think about these in terms of “who deserves to win”. Every item on this list ‘deserves’ to win- that’s why they were nominated.
Record of the Year
The Context Many get confused about the difference between Record of the Year and Song of the Year, but the difference is this: Record of the Year is a production award whereas Song of the Year is a writing award. For example, Luke Combs released a critically acclaimed cover of Fast Car (Tracy Chapman) last year. This track would be eligible for a Record of the Year nom- new recording, new mix, new vocals. However, it wouldn’t be eligible for Song of the Year, as the song- meaning the lyrics- has been previously released and has even already been nominated in this category, Tracy Chapman’s version in 1989.
Click here to see the nominees
“Now and Then” – The Beatles
Giles Martin & Paul McCartney, producers; Geoff Emerick, Steve Genewick, Jon Jacobs, Greg McAllister, Steve Orchard, Keith Smith, Mark ‘Spike’ Stent & Bruce Sugar, engineers/mixers; Miles Showell, mastering engineer
“TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” – Beyoncé
Beyoncé, Nate Ferraro, Killah B & Raphael Saadiq, producers; Hotae Alexander Jang, Alex Nibley & Stuart White, engineers/mixers; Colin Leonard, mastering engineer
“Espresso” – Sabrina Carpenter
Julian Bunetta, producer; Julian Bunetta & Jeff Gunnell, engineers/mixers; Nathan Dantzler, mastering engineer
“360” – Charli xcx
Cirkut & A. G. Cook, producers; Cirkut & Manny Marroquin, engineers/mixers; Idania Valencia, mastering engineer
“BIRDS OF A FEATHER” – Billie Eilish
FINNEAS & Billie Eilish, producers; Thom Beemer, Jon Castelli, Billie Eilish, Aron Forbes, Brad Lauchert, FINNEAS & Chaz Sexton, engineers/mixers; Dale Becker, mastering engineer
“Not Like Us” – Kendrick Lamar
Sean Momberger, Mustard & Sounwave, producers; Ray Charles Brown Jr. & Johnathan Turner, engineers/mixers; Nicolas de Porcel, mastering engineer
“Good Luck, Babe!” – Chappell Roan
Dan Nigro, producer; Mitch McCarthy & Dan Nigro, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
“Fortnight” – Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone
Jack Antonoff, Louis Bell & Taylor Swift, producers; Louis Bell, Bryce Bordone, Serban Ghenea, Sean Hutchinson, Oli Jacobs, Michael Riddleberger & Laura Sisk, engineers/mixers; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
The Verdict
Who should win: 360 or Espresso. Both of these songs are standout earworms that created a cultural splash in 2024. Both have what it takes to win, with Espresso’s playful hook made even more addictive with Sabrina’s intoxicating vocals and jaunty backing-track, and 360‘s distinctive and electronic beat combined with Charli’s bad-bitch-esqe performance.
Who will win: Even though my above two choices were bigger cultural phenomenons, my gut tells me Now and Then will take this one. In order to create this posthumous Beatle’s release, the producing team utilized AI-software to extract and augment John Lennon’s voice from old demos to use in the song. I can easily see voters getting swept both by this innovation and by the idea of giving the Beatles one final Grammy- which I have to say, would be pretty cool. (and if you see any controversy around the nomination of this song anywhere, it’s probably because when many hear AI was involved, they assume that it was AI-generated, instead of AI-restored).
Who I want to win: Espresso.
Album of the Year
The Context AOTY is the Grammy’s highest honor. At last years ceremony, Taylor Swift became the artist with the most wins in this category with Midnights, and also announced an additional album which is nominated this year. The year before last, spectators heckled Harry Styles as he accepted the award for Harry’s House, winning over Beyoncé’s Renaissance and resurfacing an important conversation that will continue to be relevant for this year’s awards. It is true that the Grammy’s has a history of snubbing black women. Beyoncé, despite being the winning-est artist in Grammy history, only has a single win from the four major categories. She is nominated again this year- will it be her turn?
Click here to see the nominees
New Blue Sun – André 3000
André 3000 & Carlos Niño, producers; André 3000, Carlos Niño & Ken Oriole, engineers/mixers; André 3000, Surya Botofasina, Nate Mercereau & Carlos Niño, songwriters; Andy Kravitz, mastering engineer
COWBOY CARTER – Beyoncé
Beyoncé, Terius “The-Dream” Gesteelde-Diamant & Dave Hamelin, producers; Matheus Braz, Brandon Harding, Hotae Alexander Jang, Dani Pampuri & Stuart White, engineers/mixers; Ryan Beatty, Beyoncé, Camaron Ochs, Terius “The-Dream” Gesteelde-Diamant, Dave Hamelin, S. Carter & Raphael Saadiq, songwriters; Colin Leonard, mastering engineer
Short n’ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter
Jack Antonoff, Julian Bunetta, Ian Kirkpatrick & John Ryan, producers; Bryce Bordone, Julian Bunetta, Serban Ghenea, Jeff Gunnell, Oli Jacobs, Manny Marroquin, John Ryan & Laura Sisk, engineers/mixers; Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff, Julian Bunetta, Sabrina Carpenter, Ian Kirkpatrick, Julia Michaels & John Ryan, songwriters; Nathan Dantzler & Ruairi O’Flaherty, mastering engineers
BRAT – Charli xcx
Charli xcx, Cirkut & A. G. Cook, producers; A. G. Cook, Tom Norris & Geoff Swan, engineers/mixers; Charlotte Aitchison, Henry Walter, Alexander Guy Cook, Finn Keane & Jonathan Christopher Shave, songwriters; Idania Valencia, mastering engineer
Djesse Vol. 4 – Jacob Collier
Jacob Collier, producer; Ben Bloomberg, Jacob Collier & Paul Pouwer, engineers/mixers; Jacob Collier, songwriter; Chris Allgood & Emily Lazar, mastering engineers
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT – Billie Eilish
FINNEAS, producer; Thom Beemer, Jon Castelli, Billie Eilish, Aron Forbes, Brad Lauchert, FINNEAS & Chaz Sexton, engineers/mixers; Billie Eilish O’Connell & Finneas O’Connell, songwriters; Dale Becker, mastering engineer
The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess – Chappell Roan
Daniel Nigro, producer; Mitch McCarthy & Daniel Nigro, engineers/mixers; Daniel Nigro & Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, songwriters; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT – Taylor Swift
Jack Antonoff, Aaron Dessner & Taylor Swift, producers; Zem Audu, Bella Blasko, Bryce Bordone, Serban Ghenea, David Hart, Mikey Freedom Hart, Sean Hutchinson, Oli Jacobs, Jonathan Low, Michael Riddleberger, Christopher Rowe, Laura Sisk & Evan Smith, engineers/mixers; Jack Antonoff, Aaron Dessner & Taylor Swift, songwriters; Randy Merrill, mastering engineer
The Verdict
Who should win: It depends on what aspect of an album you value most, but when it comes to telling a cohesive story, Cowboy Carter is a strong contender. Here’s what needs to be said about this album: it’s freaking academic. Bey starts by providing a thesis statement in American Requiem: “if that ain’t country tell me what is” (referring to the exclusionary backlash she got from her 2016 CMA performance) and proceeds to deliver a compelling musical essay to persuade her audience why she actually belongs. She crafts her argument with hits such as TEXAS HOLD ‘EM, YA YA and II MOST WANTED, carefully cited sources in the form of well placed covers (BLACKBIIRD and JOLENE), and “Endorsements” of sorts with the inclusion of country subject experts like Willie Nelson, Linda Martell, and Shaboozey.
That said, the two other choices that I think stand a significant chance here are BRAT and The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess. These two are strong in what Cowboy Carter is (arguably) relatively lacking in: pure cultural takeover. Charli XCX created a cultural phenomenon with her club record, influencing the world into “having a BRAT Summer”, feeling that “Kamala is BRAT” and searching for the BRAT green hex code. Meanwhile, your favorite artist’s favorite artist, Chappell Roan practically created a Pink Pony army of her own, drawing in record breaking crowds at numerous music festivals. The sheer amount of heads she has turned this year with her upbeat pop anthems, unique vocal sound, and outlandish outfits is illustrated by just how well represented she was in Google’s 2024 Year in Search. Between the two, Chappell has the edge for me. She has the potential to win big this year, as she is nominated in every category.
Who will win: It’s hard to say how or whether Beyonce’s now famed losing streak in this category will affect this year’s results- but I can see this being her year. If she wins, people will say it was handed to her because of the complaints, but as I explained above, I don’t think that would be the case. It is worth noting though that she was already shut out of the 2024 CMA Awards. I can easily see Midwest Princess taking it, but it also would not be too out of character for them to do something wacky and go with André 3000’s flute album.
Who I want to win: My personal favorite albums on this list are The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess and Short N’ Sweet. As a Swiftie I also listened to quite a bit of Tortured Poets, and there are some great moments on that album (i.e. The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived and The Black Dog) but I really don’t see it winning. Although- if she did- maybe she’d finally announce Reputation (Taylor’s Version) at the podium?
Song of the Year
The Context While Record of the Year is considered to be more for the producers/production quality, SOTY is for songwriters and their carefully crafted lyrics. Fun fact, despite being one of this generation’s most beloved songwriters and winning-est artist of AOTY, Taylor Swift has never won this one.
Click here to see the nominees
“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — Sean Cook, Jerrel Jones, Joe Kent, Chibueze Collins Obinna, Nevin Sastry & Mark Williams, songwriters (Shaboozey)
“BIRDS OF A FEATHER” — Billie Eilish O’Connell & Finneas O’Connell, songwriters (Billie Eilish)
“Die With A Smile” — Dernst Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars & Andrew Watt, songwriters (Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars)
“Fortnight” — Jack Antonoff, Austin Post & Taylor Swift, songwriters (Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone)
“Good Luck, Babe!” — Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, Daniel Nigro & Justin Tranter, songwriters (Chappell Roan)
“Not Like Us” — Kendrick Lamar, songwriter (Kendrick Lamar)
“Please Please Please” — Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff & Sabrina Carpenter, songwriters (Sabrina Carpenter)
“TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” — Brian Bates, Atia Boggs, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro & Raphael Saadiq, songwriters (Beyoncé)
The Verdict
Who should win: This category is utterly stacked- I can see an argument for any of them (I say this partly because I would’ve liked to see Ariana Grande’s We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love) here, but I can’t find an obvious choice for it to have replaced). However, the composition of Not Like Us and Good Luck, Babe! are the most impressive to me.
Who will win: The vibes I am getting here is that they will give it to Billie Eilish or Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars. Although they claim that they don’t take the charts into account, Die with a Smile might get some points for being the fastest song in Spotify history to reach 1 billion streams. Birds of A Feather also found massive success and is a stand out song on a great album that is nominated but I don’t predict to win. However, we know from her sweep in 2020 that the Grammy’s are fond of Billie and this category would be the perfect moment to get her and Finneas on the stage. It also was used in most of the “watch-the-Grammy’s” commercials I have seen.
Who I want to win: Not Like Us. Not only was this one of my personal favorite songs to come out of 2024, but Kendrick walking away with a Grammy for his 4th Drake diss would just be so iconic.
Best New Artist
The Context This is one of the most exciting categories because often when artists get nominated here they aren’t as well known (due to their newness, of course) but past winners have gone on to be some of the biggest names in music. These past winners include names like The Beatles, Carly Simon, Mariah Carey, Amy Winehouse, Adele, Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo. However, on the other hand, there are also so many artists that lost their nominations in this category despite going on to also be significant contributors to the music world- such as Kendrick Lamar, Led Zeppelin, Elton John, Imogen Heap and Doja Cat, just to name a few. This goes to say that even though there will only be one winner, there’s plenty of potential for more than one of the artists nominated here to go on to do big things, and with the quality of the list this year, I think that should be expected.
Click here to see the nominees
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Doechii
Khruangbin
Raye
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims
The Verdict
Who should win: Chappell Roan. The general consensus I’ve seen for this category is that Sabrina Carpenter or Chappell Roan should take it and I have to agree. These two artists have similar stories- they both had been on the music scene for quite some time already before each opening for major artists in early 2024 (Sabrina for Taylor Swift and Chappell for Olivia Rodrigo), only to breakout as huge sensations soon after. Between the two, I give Chappell a slight edge for her unique sound, unforgettable hits such as Pink Pony Club and Hot To Go, and her cultural wavemaking (see “Yes, Chappell Roan is a drag queen—and yes, women can do drag.”). However, Sabrina also demanded global attention with her quick wit and stunning Short N’ Sweet Tour, and also would be quite deserving.
Who will win: Raye. or Chappell or Sabrina. But I think Raye is someone to look out for, as she, similarly to last year’s BNA winner, Victoria Monet, had been writing hits for other artists for years (including Beyonce, Charli XCX, Ellie Goulding, Zara Larsson) before releasing an incredibly successful album of her own. This debut album, my 21st Century Blues is packed full of unique production, out-of-this world vocals, and hard-hitting topics. She is also nominated for Songwriter of the Year.
Who I want to win: Chappell Roan.
Erika Fox 